BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kansas has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has risen sharply in Kansas: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.29–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kansas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.29–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.333.7
20262.00.323.6
20272.00.313.6
20282.00.303.6
20292.00.293.6

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coats5920241973
Rock Creek 22520232023
Logan1420191969
Ruleton1120111981
Albert920181967
Hanover920211969
Lincolnville820232002
Galesburg620241971
Trading Post620242004
Gray520111967
Lapland420151974
Thrall419681968
Olathe420211982
Wreford420181967
Covert420241969
Phillipsburg420221968
Beloit 2420182005
Winona420122000
Solomon420181982
Kanopolis320231967
Wallace320191977
Rock Creek320181981
Hollenberg320231969
Pittsburg320182002
Hodges320092009

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.