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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Michigan has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Michigan is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.18–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Michigan is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.18–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.870.181.6
20270.870.181.6
20280.870.181.6
20290.870.181.6
20300.870.181.6

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hamburg 22020232004
Crystal Fls920221982
Walloon Lake 2920072006
Hamtramck719841984
Adair719951974
Maple Grove619961990
Prattville620181968
Deckerville620161979
Rochester620251993
Hamburg620011984
Fowlerville520051975
Brocky Lake420081981
Belding420011991
Cathro419951976
Juniata420231966
S Lyons419921983
Cohoctah420252022
Bell Oak 2420232021
Bear Lake320081969
New Troy320241972
Irons319851973
Skegemog Pt320111989
Bell Oak320051969
Holt320001969
Adrian320162004

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.