Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Pennsylvania
Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Pennsylvania has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
+84%Since 1968
122Routes In State
58Years
Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in Pennsylvania
long arc increasecomputed index
Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Pennsylvania: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Pennsylvania
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.68–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-23%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.68–1.695% range
±15.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1 | 0.65 | 1.6 |
| 2026 | 1.1 | 0.65 | 1.6 |
| 2027 | 1.1 | 0.66 | 1.6 |
| 2028 | 1.1 | 0.67 | 1.6 |
| 2029 | 1.1 | 0.68 | 1.6 |
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Pennsylvania
| Mount Joy | 24 | 2024 | 1979 |
| Brick Tavern | 15 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Beaver | 12 | 2024 | 1969 |
| Stoneybreak | 9 | 2022 | 1992 |
| Betula | 8 | 2022 | 1989 |
| Portersville | 8 | 1988 | 1988 |
| Elizabethvil | 8 | 2024 | 1997 |
| New Ringgold | 7 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Schaefferstown 2 | 7 | 2024 | 2002 |
| Russell City | 6 | 2007 | 1969 |
| Rush | 6 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Doubling Gap | 6 | 1976 | 1966 |
| Ramsey | 5 | 2023 | 1992 |
| Pocono Summit | 5 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Susquehanna | 5 | 2024 | 1978 |
| Kaylor | 5 | 2022 | 1968 |
| Rector | 5 | 1966 | 1966 |
| Drehersville | 5 | 1999 | 1967 |
| Doylesburg | 5 | 2023 | 2013 |
| Eldred | 4 | 2008 | 2005 |
| Marsh Hill | 4 | 2007 | 1985 |
| Duvall | 4 | 2017 | 1977 |
| Shelocta | 4 | 2024 | 1972 |
| Carsonville | 4 | 2023 | 1966 |
| West Grove | 4 | 1996 | 1970 |
Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States
alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.