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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Arizona has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-44%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Arizona is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Arizona is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.009.7
20271.30.009.7
20281.30.009.6
20291.20.009.6
20301.10.009.5

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter16820141993
Cutter 211120182015
Dateland3020251990
Palo Verde2020131992
Palo Verde 21520252014
Cactus Forest1520211993
Mcneal1420172014
Red Rock1020142010
Rose Wells819691968
Laguna820231968
Tonto Vill.520172016
Cabeza Priet520252025
Organ Pipe420182018
Hunt419951976
San Simon419951995
Greasewood419931993
Round Rock319721972
Oatman320161995
New River320152014
Florence319881968
Pomerene320251968
Peña Blanca320001975
Bartlett Res320251994
Seligman320161999
Hope320041996

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.