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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Florida has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Florida. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Florida is projected to rise about 339% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±248.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+339%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±248.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Florida is projected to rise about 339% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.79 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±248.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.760.002.5
20270.760.002.5
20280.770.002.5
20290.780.002.5
20300.790.002.5

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawano 22120112004
Oak Grove1020151971
St Vincent I1020111997
Arbuckle919931990
Pennywash Cr820092009
Port St Joe 2820152015
Ft Lonesome620102001
Cross City620231993
Wildernes Pk520051993
Hildreth 2520242010
Doctor Inlet520061971
Hildreth520081987
Shawano520012001
Seminole Hls419951971
Telogia419841970
Belmont419961967
Ft Gadsden420151969
Doctors Inlet 2420182015
Childs420142000
Miller Xrds420191988
Dowling Park320251997
Deanville320131992
Seminole Hills 2320022002
Mossy Head220111968
Broad Branch220251975

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.