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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kentucky has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kentucky is projected to rise about 190% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.27–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±193.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+190%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±193.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kentucky is projected to rise about 190% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.27–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±193.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.264.5
20262.40.264.5
20272.40.274.5
20282.40.274.5
20292.40.274.5

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Phelps3819971983
Drakesboro1719931966
Levee1019821967
Keysburg920221969
Pippa Passes919971988
Brownsville720242022
Kehoe619831972
Staffordsvil619971996
Levee 2620192007
Dixon520172007
Demunbruns520211966
Porter520221967
Canton420221972
Cedar Grove420221968
Million419841966
Boxville419761966
Paintsville419951983
Bardwell 2420242007
Mckee320241968
Gatewood320191982
Eastview320241968
Daniel Boone319691966
East Union320221966
Bays Fork320171999
Hodgenville 2320192008

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.