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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kentucky has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.38–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±173%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kentucky is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 3.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.38–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.354.6
20272.50.364.6
20282.50.364.6
20292.50.374.6
20302.50.384.6

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Phelps3819971983
Keysburg3420251969
Drakesboro1719931966
Canton1220251972
Levee1019821967
Pippa Passes919971988
Brownsville720242022
Bardwell 2720252007
Lebanon Junction720252000
Cedar Grove620251968
Kehoe619831972
Staffordsvil619971996
Levee 2620192007
Dixon520172007
Demunbruns520211966
Million419841966
Boxville419761966
Plum420251966
Paintsville419951983
Mckee320251968
Gatewood320191982
Eastview320251968
Daniel Boone319691966
Porter320251967
East Union320221966

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.