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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Virginia has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Virginia is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Virginia is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.640.001.8
20270.620.001.8
20280.600.001.8
20290.580.001.8
20300.560.001.8

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Backbay1019661966
Finchley820152007
Gladys620242000
Isom520241969
Putnam420251969
Big Island420251968
Quinby419951966
Marion419821977
Saltville420251970
Iron Mountain 3420172017
Taylorstown 2420132012
Iron Mtn.420061997
W Augusta320251968
Stanley320251966
Dryden320251991
David320001977
Carters Brdg320101966
Hall320191967
Truhart320152002
Brodnax320241973
Cornland320002000
Shenandoa Np320232023
Gloucester320122003
Taylorstown220081967
Churchville220121967

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.