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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Texas has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+84%Since 1969
155Routes In State
57Years

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in Texas

long arc increasecomputed index

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Texas: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±250.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029
0.88Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.495% range
±250.5%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.890.002.4
20260.890.002.4
20270.890.002.4
20280.880.002.4
20290.880.002.4

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Texas.
Duran4219991996
Henrietta4120051975
Rotan4120241977
Childress3919941994
Zapata3119871977
Cottonwood2520061979
Kosse2120191998
Hobson2020071974
Booker2020101975
Gause1719891972
Rhome1720241971
Williams1620212005
Easton 21420242021
Chandler1320021968
Schroeder1219881975
Oakwood1219871974
Black Gap1220191988
College Stn1219901990
Moon Lake1219951995
Osage1120031969
Weinert1019811981
Three Rivers1020132001
Mount Zion1019961994
Gambill Ref.1020192015
Thornton 2820101987

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.