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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Texas has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Texas: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±250.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±250.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±250.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.890.002.4
20260.890.002.4
20270.890.002.4
20280.880.002.4
20290.880.002.4

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duran4219991996
Henrietta4120051975
Rotan4120241977
Childress3919941994
Zapata3119871977
Cottonwood2520061979
Kosse2120191998
Hobson2020071974
Booker2020101975
Gause1719891972
Rhome1720241971
Williams1620212005
Easton 21420242021
Chandler1320021968
Schroeder1219881975
Oakwood1219871974
Black Gap1220191988
College Stn1219901990
Moon Lake1219951995
Osage1120031969
Weinert1019811981
Three Rivers1020132001
Mount Zion1019961994
Gambill Ref.1020192015
Thornton 2820101987

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.