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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Mississippi has surged: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

39×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Mississippi: up 39× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 1.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±165.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Mississippi is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 1.8–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±165.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.51.412
20276.61.512
20286.71.612
20296.81.712
20306.91.812

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Okatibbee L.15420081996
Duffee15020081973
Delta N.F.11520162015
Eagle Lake11020232012
Trace Hinds7820252016
Tchula 36420221995
Trace North5020172012
Isola3320221988
Amite River2320122008
Beverly2020111966
Macon2020251970
Lucien1220071974
Lake Como1120211983
Dundee1020221972
Trace Attala920182018
Olive Branch 2920222016
Benton720101972
Trace Central720222022
Trace South720192010
Diberville719871980
Mt Carmel620101991
Monticello620082008
Embry620251988
Trace Lee620182016
Grenada Lake520171997

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.