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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nebraska has surged: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+276%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Nebraska: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.92–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nebraska is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.92–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.874.5
20272.70.884.5
20282.70.894.5
20292.70.904.5
20302.70.924.5

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brady4420251980
Seward3520241971
Ponca2520192019
Petersburg1920251993
Liberty1220011967
Irvington1220181972
Murdock1220252018
Johnson920241967
Berwyn 2920252014
Sparta820251980
Eagle Creek820241968
Red Cloud820242018
Almeria719871987
Ringgold720172003
Berwyn720101993
Richland620251989
Johnstown620191985
Liberty 2620042004
Paxton520071968
Gordon520251975
Culbertson520252025
Sumner420251977
Agate420011968
Murray Lake420241989
Oglala Nat. Grass.420252002

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.