BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nebraska has surged: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+270%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Nebraska: up 270% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nebraska is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.91–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.91–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nebraska is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.91–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.864.5
20262.70.874.5
20272.70.884.5
20282.70.894.5
20292.70.914.6

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brady4520241980
Seward3520241971
Gretna 23020222019
Ponca2520192019
Oglala Nat. Grass.2120232002
Liberty1220011967
Irvington1220181972
Hendley1220232021
Johnson920241967
Richland920241989
Eagle Creek820241968
Red Cloud820242018
Holbrook720241973
Almeria719871987
Ringgold720172003
Berwyn720101993
Johnstown620191985
Gordon620181975
Liberty 2620042004
Paxton520071968
Arthur520241996
Nenzel520242018
Agate 2420242002
Agate420011968
Murray Lake420241989

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.