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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nevada has surged: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+225%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Northern Rough-winged Swallow has surged in Nevada: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nevada is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±817.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±817.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nevada is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±817.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.40.0010
20263.50.0010
20273.50.0010
20283.50.0010
20293.60.0010

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gardnerville7020061992
Toiyabe Nf5420241987
Hiko2420231968
Ranchogrande2020241988
Calico Spr1819741971
Dobbin Creek1019971971
Carson River920052001
Eureka620091968
Charleston Reservoir620242024
Humboldt Nf519941993
Rye Patch419871987
Majors Place420191990
Vya319731973
Ruby Valley 2320242006
Ash Meadows320001995
Midas220151990
Comins Lake220162005
Virgin Creek220181997
Meadow Vally220241999
Nelson220241995
Sheldon Nwr220011992
Chimney Res.220232015
Dinner Sta119931968
Sand Pass120221987
Fish Creek120051997

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.