BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New Mexico has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Northern Rough-winged Swallow Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New Mexico is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.86
20260.300.000.85
20270.290.000.84
20280.280.000.84
20290.280.000.83

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Northern Rough-winged Swallow in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sabinoso1920112001
Roswell720231974
Raton719941994
Grenville520242003
Angel Fire 2520242005
Red Rock520221992
Farmington419791975
Ojo Sarco420241968
Angel Fire420021992
Vallecitos420241994
La Plata420091992
Aztec419891988
Salt Lake320002000
La Plata 2320162016
Clovis320142001
Vicks Peak319941994
Pinon320241994
La Cienega220181970
Valencia219971972
San Antonio219771977
Carrizozo220081999
Mcgaffey220141996
Quemado219971996
Mesilla220001992
Logan220141987

Northern Rough-winged Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.