BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Oregon has surged: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+342%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Flycatcher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Oregon: up 342% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.34.3
20262.81.44.3
20272.91.44.3
20282.91.44.4
20292.91.54.4

Gray Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clover Creek4320241972
Blitzen2919931974
Sisters2420241997
Wagontire2220241970
Madras2120241997
Blitzen 22020241994
Barnes Val1919871984
Deschutes1820241968
Buchanan1720241971
Eagle Rock1619741971
Bly 21520242007
Lapham Res.1220241993
Paisley1220241973
Crooked Riv.1020241994
Silver Creek820241996
Badger Creek820242003
Chinchalo820242001
Crowley620241983
Blizzard Gap620241984
Fish Lake620241976
Lookout Lake619941985
Green Mtn.620241995
Donnybrook619971997
Paunina520241994
Dell Spring419881988

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.