BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Oregon has surged: up 355% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+355%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Flycatcher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Oregon: up 355% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 1.5–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 1.5–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.44.3
20272.91.44.3
20282.91.54.3
20292.91.54.4
20303.01.54.4

Gray Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clover Creek4420251972
Wagontire3220251970
Blitzen2919931974
Madras2520251997
Deschutes1920251968
Barnes Val1919871984
Sisters1820251997
Crooked Riv.1820251994
Eagle Rock1619741971
Lapham Res.1520251993
Badger Creek1520252003
Paisley1420251973
Bly 21320252007
Chinchalo1320252001
Silver Creek1220251996
Blitzen 2920251994
Fandango Can720251984
Buchanan720251971
Green Mtn.720251995
Blizzard Gap620251984
Lookout Lake619941985
Donnybrook619971997
Crowley520251983
Twickenham520252010
Paunina520241994

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.