BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Arizona has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+74%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Flycatcher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has risen sharply in Arizona: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.26–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.60 (95% range 0.26–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.570.230.91
20270.580.240.92
20280.590.250.93
20290.590.250.93
20300.600.260.94

Gray Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Williams1320252001
Black Mesa1019951989
Mormon Lake719741974
Forest Lakes720251994
Sprucedale620251992
Pinetop420222014
Tsaile420232018
House Rock320221968
Page320192011
Tonto Vill.320251992
Clay Spring320242009
Mt Trumbull219801975
Rucker220091993
Carr Mtn220232014
Portal120212017
Prescott120211989
Blue119901975
Laguna119711971
Skull Valley 2120252025
Toroweap120231994
Cow Springs120191997
Skull Valley120222018
Kaibito120242010
Happy Jack120222011

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.