BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Arizona has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+48%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Flycatcher Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Flycatcher in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to rise about 85% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.24–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+85%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Arizona is projected to rise about 85% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.24–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.550.210.89
20260.560.220.90
20270.570.230.91
20280.570.230.91
20290.580.240.92

Gray Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black Mesa1019951989
Mormon Lake719741974
Forest Lakes720241994
Tonto Vill.520211992
Pinetop420222014
Tsaile420232018
House Rock320221968
Page320192011
Clay Spring320242009
Mt Trumbull219801975
Rucker220091993
Williams220182001
Carr Mtn220232014
Sprucedale220231992
Portal120212017
Prescott120211989
Blue119901975
Laguna119711971
Toroweap120231994
Cow Springs120191997
Skull Valley120222018
Kaibito120242010
Happy Jack120222011

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.