BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Idaho

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Idaho has surged: up 355% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+355%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Flycatcher Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Idaho: up 355% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Idaho is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Idaho is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.001.5
20260.560.001.5
20270.560.001.5
20280.560.001.5
20290.550.001.5

Gray Flycatcher Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dougal Res1120241988
Triangle720241993
Kyle Canyon420241986
Almo220231993
Daniels Res219881988
Twin Buttes220221990
Circular Bu220222022
Carey219891989
Hot Spring119971997
Silver City120242006
Lost River120221999
Tractor Flat120222022
Springfield119811981
Magic Mtn120021997
Picabo120112011

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.