BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in New Mexico has surged: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+275%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in New Mexico: up 275% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.59–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.59–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.531.5
20261.00.551.5
20271.00.561.5
20281.10.581.5
20291.10.591.5

Gray Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reserve1120231994
Mt. Taylor820121993
Pecos620171973
Mt. Taylor 2620242014
Claunch 2620242001
Fence Lake420241975
Horse Mtn420232000
Emory Pass420241995
Claunch320001987
Stinking Lk.319991997
Gallinas320211993
Pinon320241994
Cebolla220232016
Ojo Sarco220241969
La Plata 2220162014
Counselor220241995
Mcgaffey220221995
Capitan Mtn.220162009
Queen220212021
Bluewater Lake220212000
Nageesi120171968
Salt Lake 2120242019
Torreon120221991
La Cienega120151977
Horse Spgs120151987

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.