BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Flycatcher Population Analysis

TyrannidaeAerial insectivoresEmpidonax wrightii

Gray Flycatcher has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

17×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
339RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Gray Flycatcher

The Gray Flycatcher (Empidonax wrightii) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 339 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 11 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Gray Flycatcher TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Flycatcher. See the full index history below.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.24–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.24–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.220.38
20270.300.220.38
20280.310.230.39
20290.310.230.39
20300.320.240.40

Where the Gray Flycatcher Is Detected

BBS routes recording Gray Flycatcher, sized by most recent count.

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend by State

Gray Flycatcher population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona+74%197024
California16×197341
Colorado+455%197536
Idaho+285%198815
Nevada33×197132
New Mexico+261%197035
Oregon+355%197067
Texasinsufficient datan/a2
Utah+2%198860
Washington+436%199115
Wyoming-68%199012

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Gray Flycatcher population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-68%19885
Great Basin+684%1970134
Northern Rockies-34%197344
Sierra Nevada+688%198110
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+141%1970109
Coastal California+41%19774
Sierra Madre Occidental+161%197819
Chihuahuan Desert-68%19807

Gray Flycatcher Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 1602% since 1970. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.