BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Northern Rockies has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-33%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Flycatcher in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 0.74 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.260.000.86
20260.250.000.86
20270.240.000.85
20280.230.000.84
20290.230.000.83

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clover CreekOREGON432024
MadrasOREGON212024
Crawford MtsUTAH182023
Eagle RockOREGON161974
RelianceWYOMING91981
Silver CreekOREGON82024
MaybellCOLORADO72024
DonnybrookOREGON61997
Neponset ResUTAH62018
RandolphUTAH52024
Patrick Draw 2WYOMING51981
TwickenhamOREGON42024
Deer ParkWASHINGTON42015
Great DivideCOLORADO32012
Browns ParkCOLORADO32024
Malheur Res.OREGON32023
Omak CreekWASHINGTON32024
Mtn ViewWYOMING32024
MonumentOREGON22024
SilviesOREGON22024
Saleratus CrUTAH22016
Green RiverWYOMING21981
LayCOLORADO12024
WickiupOREGON12004
BridgeportOREGON11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.