BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Nevada has surged: up 31× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

31×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Flycatcher Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Nevada: up 31× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Nevada is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.57–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±148%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Nevada is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.57–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±148%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.60.438.8
20264.70.478.8
20274.70.508.9
20284.70.548.9
20294.80.578.9

Gray Flycatcher Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheldon Nwr4320191992
Charleston Reservoir2920242024
Bald Mtn.2920241992
Ranchogrande2720241990
Dinner Sta2419931990
Mizpah920241992
Illipah620211991
Midas520241990
Fish Creek520211997
Austin420182010
Eureka420152008
Humboldt Nf320191993
Gardnerville320061993
Cortez220232019
Meadow Vally220242024
Willis220241994
Ruby Valley220011999
Oreana220032003
Piute Mdws120192019
Calico Spr119711969
Comins Lake120122005
Walker Can120241975
Ruby Valley 2120102008
Majors Place119911990
Virgin Creek120141995

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.