BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Washington

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Washington has surged: up 436% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+436%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Flycatcher Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Flycatcher in Washington. See the full index history below.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Washington is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.05–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Washington is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 0.15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.05–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.030.27
20270.160.040.28
20280.160.040.28
20290.160.040.28
20300.170.050.29

Gray Flycatcher Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ellensburg420251981
Deer Park420151998
Omak Creek320242007
Lake Chelan320252002
Pomeroy220192019
Ronald219951991
Wilbur220241999
Tonasket220072007
Twisp119871987
Turnbull Nwr120232003
Spring Lake120171992
Reardan120242024
Yakima119961996
Rimrock120182010
Blewett Pass120142014

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.