BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Washington

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Washington has surged: up 451% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+451%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Flycatcher Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Washington: up 451% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Washington is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.04–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Washington is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.04–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.030.28
20260.150.030.28
20270.160.030.28
20280.160.040.29
20290.170.040.29

Gray Flycatcher Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake Chelan920242002
Ellensburg420241981
Deer Park420151998
Omak Creek320242007
Pomeroy220192019
Ronald219951991
Wilbur220241999
Tonasket220072007
Twisp119871987
Turnbull Nwr120232003
Spring Lake120171992
Reardan120242024
Yakima119961996
Rimrock120182010
Blewett Pass120142014

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.