BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Utah has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-27%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Flycatcher Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Flycatcher in Utah. See the full index history below.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Utah is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.13–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.66Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Utah is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.13–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.121.2
20260.650.121.2
20270.650.131.2
20280.660.131.2
20290.660.131.2

Gray Flycatcher Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crawford Mts1820232002
Goose Creek Mtn.1020231997
Neponset Res620181997
Lost Cr. Res620162016
Newcastle620211997
Glen Canyon620241999
Lynn520231991
Randolph520241997
Moquith Mtn520241987
Vernal420182004
La Sal 2320062003
Willow Creek320241987
Hite320182014
Moon Lake 2220182004
Book Ridge220232021
Saleratus Cr220161997
Canyonlands220051991
Vernon220231997
M Warner Res220172002
Fayette220211996
Castle Dale220112010
Hanna220181999
Escalante220231998
Cleveland220112004
La Sal 3220222007

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.