BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Utah

All statesAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Utah has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+2%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Gray Flycatcher Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Gray Flycatcher in Utah. See the full index history below.

Gray Flycatcher Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Utah is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.18–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Utah is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.18–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.690.161.2
20270.690.171.2
20280.700.171.2
20290.700.171.2
20300.710.181.2

Gray Flycatcher Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crawford Mts1820232002
Goose Creek Mtn.1020251997
Newcastle1020251997
Neponset Res620181997
Lost Cr. Res620162016
Randolph620251997
Hatch620252023
Glen Canyon520251999
Moquith Mtn520241987
E. Bear Lake420252005
Vernon420251997
Fayette420251996
Vernal420182004
La Sal 2320062003
Willow Creek320241987
Lynn320251991
Gold Hill320252015
Notom320251996
Moon Lake 2220182004
Saleratus Cr220161997
Canyonlands220051991
M Warner Res220172002
Castle Dale220112010
Hanna220181999
Escalante220251998

Gray Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.