BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-60%Since 1980
7Routes In Region
33Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Gray Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.02–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±226.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029
0.22Projected 2029 index
0.02–0.4395% range
±226.1%Backtest error
19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.210.010.42
20260.220.010.42
20270.220.010.42
20280.220.020.42
20290.220.020.43

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert.
PinonNEW-MEXICO32024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO22016
QueenNEW-MEXICO22021
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12023
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12017
Bear MtnTEXAS12016
ToyahvaleTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.