BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-60%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Gray Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.02–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±226.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+61%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±226.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 61% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.02–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±226.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.010.42
20260.220.010.42
20270.220.010.42
20280.220.020.42
20290.220.020.43

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinonNEW-MEXICO32024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO22016
QueenNEW-MEXICO22021
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12023
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12017
Bear MtnTEXAS12016
ToyahvaleTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.