BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+141%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 141% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.54–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 82% by 2030 — from 0.55 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.54–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.491.4
20270.960.511.4
20280.970.521.4
20290.980.531.4
20300.990.541.4

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wray GulchCOLORADO142025
Black MesaARIZONA101995
Piceance BasinCOLORADO82004
Animas 2COLORADO82018
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO82012
DeltaCOLORADO72021
AngoraCOLORADO72025
PecosNEW-MEXICO62017
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO62025
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO62024
HatchUTAH62025
Lost Cr. ResUTAH62016
PinonCOLORADO52025
AnimasCOLORADO52004
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO52025
Glen CanyonUTAH52025
Moquith MtnUTAH52024
TsaileARIZONA42023
CokedaleCOLORADO42025
DinosaurCOLORADO42025
Baxter PassCOLORADO42024
BasinCOLORADO42024
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO42023
FayetteUTAH42025
VernalUTAH42018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.