BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+144%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 144% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.57–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 49% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.57–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.960.521.4
20260.970.531.4
20270.990.541.4
20281.00.561.4
20291.00.571.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wray GulchCOLORADO112023
Black MesaARIZONA101995
WalsenburgCOLORADO102024
Piceance BasinCOLORADO82004
Animas 2COLORADO82018
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO82012
DeltaCOLORADO72021
AngoraCOLORADO72024
PecosNEW-MEXICO62017
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO62024
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO62024
Glen CanyonUTAH62024
Lost Cr. ResUTAH62016
CokedaleCOLORADO52024
AnimasCOLORADO52004
Moquith MtnUTAH52024
TsaileARIZONA42023
Baxter PassCOLORADO42024
BasinCOLORADO42024
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO42024
Horse MtnNEW-MEXICO42023
VernalUTAH42018
House RockARIZONA32022
PageARIZONA32019
Douglas PassCOLORADO32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.