BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

-77%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Gray Flycatcher In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±344.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±344.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±344.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.25
20260.000.000.25
20270.000.000.25
20280.000.000.25
20290.000.000.25

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NavarroCALIFORNIA531993
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA21995
GazelleCALIFORNIA22017
Elk LakeOREGON12024
Hazel CampOREGON11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.