BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 568% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+568%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 568% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Gray Flycatcher In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.90–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.90–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.90–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.782.2
20261.50.812.2
20271.50.842.3
20281.60.872.3
20291.60.902.3

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChilcootCALIFORNIA102024
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA82023
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA82006
GoumazCALIFORNIA72011
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA52019
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA42024
CrestviewCALIFORNIA32024
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA21994
SattleyCALIFORNIA12016
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.