BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 568% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+568%Since 1981
10Routes In Region
45Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 568% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.90–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2029
1.6Projected 2029 index
0.90–2.395% range
±77.9%Backtest error
19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.50.782.2
20261.50.812.2
20271.50.842.3
20281.60.872.3
20291.60.902.3

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Nevada.
ChilcootCALIFORNIA102024
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA82023
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA82006
GoumazCALIFORNIA72011
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA52019
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA42024
CrestviewCALIFORNIA32024
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA21994
SattleyCALIFORNIA12016
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.