BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Great Basin has surged: up 614% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+614%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Great Basin: up 614% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Flycatcher In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.02.03.9
20263.02.13.9
20273.02.14.0
20283.12.14.0
20293.12.24.1

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheldon NwrNEVADA432019
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA422019
Charleston ReservoirNEVADA292024
Bald Mtn.NEVADA292024
BlitzenOREGON291993
RanchograndeNEVADA272024
RavendaleCALIFORNIA242008
Dinner StaNEVADA241993
SistersOREGON242024
WagontireOREGON222024
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA212024
Blitzen 2OREGON202024
TionestaCALIFORNIA192021
Barnes ValOREGON191987
DeschutesOREGON182024
BuchananOREGON172024
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA152018
Bly 2OREGON152024
MadelineCALIFORNIA132024
PaisleyOREGON122024
Lapham Res.OREGON122024
Dougal ResIDAHO112024
Crooked Riv.OREGON102024
Goose Creek Mtn.UTAH102023
MizpahNEVADA92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.