BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Flycatcher In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Great Basin has surged: up 684% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+684%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
134Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Great Basin: up 684% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Gray Flycatcher In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Great Basin is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 2.2–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.02.03.9
20273.02.13.9
20283.12.14.0
20293.12.24.0
20303.12.24.1

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheldon NwrNEVADA432019
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA422019
WagontireOREGON322025
Charleston ReservoirNEVADA292024
BlitzenOREGON291993
RanchograndeNEVADA272024
Dinner StaNEVADA241993
TionestaCALIFORNIA192021
DeschutesOREGON192025
Barnes ValOREGON191987
SistersOREGON182025
Crooked Riv.OREGON182025
IngallsCALIFORNIA162025
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA162025
Bald Mtn.NEVADA162025
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA152018
Lapham Res.OREGON152025
Badger CreekOREGON152025
PaisleyOREGON142025
Bly 2OREGON132025
ChinchaloOREGON132025
MadelineCALIFORNIA112025
Goose Creek Mtn.UTAH102025
NewcastleUTAH102025
MizpahNEVADA92024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.