BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Gray Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+161%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Gray Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.65–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 0.65–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.561.9
20271.30.582.0
20281.30.612.0
20291.30.632.0
20301.30.652.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WilliamsARIZONA132025
Mormon LakeARIZONA71974
Forest LakesARIZONA72025
SprucedaleARIZONA62025
ReserveNEW-MEXICO52025
PinetopARIZONA42022
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA32025
Clay SpringARIZONA32024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO32025
Carr MtnARIZONA22023
RuckerARIZONA22009
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22025
PrescottARIZONA12021
BlueARIZONA11990
Skull ValleyARIZONA12022
Happy JackARIZONA12022
PortalARIZONA12021
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA12025
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.