BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Gray Flycatcher In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+116%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Gray Flycatcher has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.60–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.83 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.60–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.511.9
20261.20.531.9
20271.20.551.9
20281.30.582.0
20291.30.602.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Gray Flycatcher in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ReserveNEW-MEXICO112023
Mormon LakeARIZONA71974
Forest LakesARIZONA72024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA52021
PinetopARIZONA42022
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO42024
Clay SpringARIZONA32024
WilliamsARIZONA22018
Carr MtnARIZONA22023
SprucedaleARIZONA22023
RuckerARIZONA22009
PrescottARIZONA12021
BlueARIZONA11990
Skull ValleyARIZONA12022
Happy JackARIZONA12022
PortalARIZONA12021
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12024
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.