BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Oregon has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-79%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has collapsed in Oregon: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Oregon is projected to fall about 62% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.910.003.1
20270.840.003.0
20280.760.002.9
20290.690.002.9
20300.610.002.8

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fish Lake3020251974
Santiam2020251994
Lorane1620251994
Svensen1419921990
Garfield1320251974
Fisher1020101997
Sandy River1020061993
Donnelly919951995
Scio820251971
Molalla820251994
Scappoose820251995
Bridgeport720251986
Blitzen719721971
Joseph620251971
Pendleton620251978
Timber520171968
Bull Run520102007
Umpqua420251968
Elkton420251972
Glasgow420251990
Troy419971992
Riley Peak420162007
Zumwalt420051995
Cool Camp320131968
Granite320011988

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.