BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in New Jersey has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+78%Since 1970
28Routes In State
56Years

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in New Jersey

long arc increasecomputed index

Willow Flycatcher has surged in New Jersey: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in New Jersey is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.21–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029
0.69Projected 2029 index
0.21–1.295% range
±55.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.680.191.2
20260.680.201.2
20270.680.201.2
20280.690.211.2
20290.690.211.2

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in New Jersey.
Croton320071970
Hope319941974
Gillette320241988
Ramseysburg320241995
Sandbrook220221969
Bloomsbury220231969
Dover220231984
Ocean City220242014
Croton 2220232010
Woodbury Hgt119951986
Deepwater119711971
Toms River119661966
Masonville119661966
Holmansville120041992
Clarksville119721972
New Bedford120241995
Robbinsville119781969
Midvale120161995
Kemah Lake120241983
High Point120221986
Pottersville120181981
Keyport120151990
Cranbury120151987
Roosevelt120131986
Friendship120182018

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.