BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Montana has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-20%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Montana. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.61.63.5
20272.61.63.5
20282.61.63.5
20292.61.63.5
20302.61.63.6

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chestnut3620251968
Sula1820241978
Kalispell1620251968
Ninemile1320251993
Clinton1220251975
Lima1020251994
Woodman920251968
Elliston920251973
Clancy920252015
Fish Creek920241995
Fort Logan720252018
Cramer Creek620192003
Red Rock620251974
East Glacier Park620252016
Thompson Riv520241993
Elevation Mt420252003
Church Hill420252017
Logan Pass320251980
Cleveland319951979
Arlee320251968
Twin Bridges319761968
Powderville320172015
Westby320232023
Raynesford320192016
Freeman Creek320152015

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.