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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Montana has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Montana. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Montana is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.61.63.6
20262.61.63.6
20272.61.63.6
20282.61.63.6
20292.61.63.6

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chestnut4220241968
Sula1820241978
Clancy1520232015
Libby Dam1420241979
Woodman1220241968
Kalispell920241968
Fish Creek920241995
Clinton820241975
Ninemile820241993
Lima720241994
Cramer Creek620192003
Fort Logan620242018
East Glacier Park620242016
Beaverhead520241973
Red Rock520241974
Thompson Riv520241993
Hebgen Lake520242017
Elliston420241973
Pablo Res.420241995
Clyde Park420242018
Cleveland319951979
Elevation Mt320242003
Pryor Mtn.320182004
Twin Bridges319761968
Powderville320172015

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.