BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-50%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 55% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.08
20260.030.000.08
20270.030.000.08
20280.030.000.08
20290.030.000.08

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Angel Fire 2320242005
Capulin219931993
Emory Pass219931993
Angel Fire220021994
Cebolla119831973
Ojo Sarco119811970
La Plata119971991
La Plata 2120152015
Cooley Lake119941994
Shiprock120192018
Mt. Taylor119971997
Gallinas119921992

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.