BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in New Mexico has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-39%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in New Mexico is projected to fall about 54% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.08). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.08
20270.030.000.08
20280.030.000.08
20290.030.000.08
20300.030.000.08

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capulin219931993
Angel Fire 2220252005
Emory Pass219931993
Angel Fire220021994
Cebolla119831973
Ojo Sarco119811970
La Plata119971991
Red Rock120252006
La Plata 2120152015
Cooley Lake119941994
Shiprock120192018
Mt. Taylor119971997
Gallinas119921992

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.