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Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Indiana has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.88–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.88–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.862.2
20271.60.872.2
20281.60.872.2
20291.60.882.2
20301.60.882.3

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cuba820212017
Kankakee Sands820252000
Middlebury620251989
Packertown620041967
Ellis520241966
Millersburg420141988
New Brunswick420252024
Lakeville420241995
Packertown 2420252005
Knox320251989
Tipton319911966
Swayzee320131986
Jamestown320251986
Brookville320251966
Plainfield319991999
Witts Station320252000
Newberry320251999
Indiana Dune320251993
South Bend219831968
Columbia Cty220231981
Fowler220221966
Thorntown220241982
Muncie219971986
Pimento220231988
Friendswood220241986

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.