BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Indiana has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.92–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.92–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.902.3
20261.60.902.3
20271.60.912.3
20281.60.912.3
20291.60.922.3

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cuba820212017
Newberry720241999
Packertown620041967
Kankakee Sands620242000
Middlebury520241989
Ellis520241966
Brazil520241967
Packertown 2520242005
Millersburg420141988
New Brunswick420242024
Witts Station420242000
Lakeville420241995
Tipton319911966
Swayzee320131986
Plainfield319991999
Indiana Dune320241993
South Bend219831968
Columbia Cty220231981
Fowler220221966
Thorntown220241982
Muncie219971986
Berne220241966
Pimento220231988
Friendswood220241986
Milroy220211966

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.