BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in West Virginia has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in West Virginia is projected to rise about 158% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+158%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in West Virginia is projected to rise about 158% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.71
20260.290.000.70
20270.290.000.70
20280.280.000.70
20290.280.000.69

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Storm419751975
Smoot319801980
Bemis320192010
Ruthbelle320101975
Clear Creek220231992
Meadland220232003
Paradise220171971
Bismark220211985
Olcott219781974
Dailey220001976
Smithfield220222022
Sleepy Creek219811966
Hix120151986
Pedro120111986
Bramwell120081987
Ghent120171982
Hanover119971997
Glade Run119961988
Bowden120071998
Pt Pleasant120231993
Hubbardstown120062006
Spencer120081986
Wymer120151997
Nicut120221986
Glady120132001

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.