BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Nebraska has surged: up 325% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+325%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has surged in Nebraska: up 325% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Nebraska is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.04–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Nebraska is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.40 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.04–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.230.030.42
20270.230.030.43
20280.230.040.43
20290.240.040.43
20300.240.040.44

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sumner520251984
Tilden420252019
Kearney320251993
Eagle Creek320251998
Piester Lake320212003
Ponca320192019
Pine Ridge220082008
Sparta220251986
Midway220231989
Sargent220242023
Hampton220252025
Julian120051996
Johnson120252019
Liberty119921970
Belvidere120252022
Agate 2120242024
Kenesaw120132013
Oglala Nat. Grass.120082008
Irvington119841968
Petersburg120231981
Almeria120122012
Paxton120162016
Thurston120171986
Swan Lake120232008
Johnstown120211996

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.