BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Nevada has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

+62%Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has risen sharply in Nevada: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Nevada is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Nevada is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.31
20270.110.000.31
20280.110.000.31
20290.110.000.31
20300.110.000.31

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow Vally320252016
Midas119901990
Jarbidge120152006
Dinner Sta119901990
Ranchogrande120211999
Comins Lake120122005
Humboldt Nf120152006
Virgin Creek120152015
Humboldt Nf 2120252024
Toiyabe Nf120182018
Fallon119931993
Gardnerville 2120142014

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.