BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Missouri has surged: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+120%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has surged in Missouri: up 120% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.14 (95% range 0.06–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.14 (95% range 0.06–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.130.050.21
20250.140.050.22
20260.140.060.22
20270.140.060.22
20280.140.060.22

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kahoka2720232002
Lincoln320132013
Mcfall320231994
Peace Valley219901990
Woodlandville220152015
Trenton220091984
Osage Beach220092000
Pulaski120181994
Cameron120152003
Cassville120192010
Pineville120192016
Cp Girardeau120192010
Barnard120092003
Watson120182018
Handley120211981
Graydon119681968
Luray120222022
Hayden120171978
Danville120171980
Syracuse120072002
Emden120222022
Ohio120191980
Sni Mills119771977
Rensselaer120072007
Warren119721972

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.