Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Virginia
Willow Flycatcher in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
-65%Since 1969
33Routes In State
54Years
Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in Virginia
long arc declinecomputed index
Willow Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Virginia
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.04Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2895% range
±29.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| 2026 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| 2027 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| 2028 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| 2029 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Virginia
| Marion | 6 | 1982 | 1976 |
| Hebron | 6 | 2003 | 1981 |
| Partlow | 3 | 1980 | 1980 |
| Chincoteag W | 3 | 1998 | 1998 |
| Putnam | 2 | 1974 | 1969 |
| Cape Charles | 2 | 1997 | 1997 |
| Taylorstown | 1 | 2007 | 1967 |
| W Augusta | 1 | 1995 | 1995 |
| Churchville | 1 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Stanley | 1 | 1996 | 1996 |
| Tryme | 1 | 2019 | 1977 |
| Nat Tunnel | 1 | 2000 | 1988 |
| Jerome | 1 | 2014 | 2014 |
| Rural Retrt | 1 | 2023 | 1982 |
| Douthat | 1 | 2004 | 1992 |
| David | 1 | 1994 | 1994 |
| Isom | 1 | 2005 | 1969 |
| Covington | 1 | 2024 | 2024 |
| Fincastle | 1 | 1970 | 1970 |
| Colonial Pky | 1 | 1997 | 1997 |
| Big Island | 1 | 1975 | 1975 |
| Carters Brdg | 1 | 1978 | 1978 |
| Iron Mtn. | 1 | 2009 | 2009 |
| Pine Mtn. | 1 | 2005 | 1998 |
| Clinchport | 1 | 1974 | 1969 |
Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.