BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Tennessee has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-29%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.040.000.09
20240.040.000.09
20250.040.000.09
20260.040.000.09
20270.040.000.09

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cornpone220052005
Smokey Jct119951983
Tiptonville120212021
Pawpaw120071980
Lovell120071992
Oliver Spgs120161987
Walland119831983
Mt Olive120072007
Allens Brdge120221994
Fish Springs119981967
Humboldt119811981
Indian Mound119851985
Lewis Forest119721972
Silver Pt119901990
Soddy119721971

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.