BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Ohio has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.8–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.8–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.83.8
20262.81.83.8
20272.81.83.8
20282.81.83.8
20292.81.83.8

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stonecreek1620241996
Omega1120241966
Pittsfield1020241992
Bismark1019951967
Garrettsvile1019911973
Hiram1020211992
Cumberland920171966
Smithfield820241972
London720121997
Lucerne620241994
Fulton620241966
Bloomville520241992
Dresden520241966
Kunkle420241992
Wayland420171992
Kenton420131966
New Somerset419931972
Coal Run419921966
Middlefield320171974
No Kenton320231971
Lattasburg320241984
Harveysburg319961967
Birmingham320241988
Graytown219841967
N Baltimore220181973

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.