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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Ohio has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Willow Flycatcher in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.8–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.8–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.71.73.7
20272.71.73.8
20282.71.73.8
20292.81.73.8
20302.81.83.8

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stonecreek1320251996
Omega1120241966
Pittsfield1020241992
Bismark1019951967
Garrettsvile1019911973
Cumberland920171966
Valley City920251995
Fulton820251966
Smithfield820241972
London720121997
Wayland420171992
New Somerset419931972
Coal Run419921966
Napoleon320251969
Bloomville320251992
Middlefield320171974
No Kenton320231971
Lucerne320251994
Lattasburg320251984
Baxter Ridge320251998
Dresden320251966
Harveysburg319961967
Marion 2320252024
Birmingham320241988
Kunkle220251992

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.