BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Minnesota has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+125%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has surged in Minnesota: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.15–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.15–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.130.54
20260.340.140.54
20270.340.140.54
20280.350.150.55
20290.350.150.55

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glyndon420241978
Tracy420242006
Sherburne Nr320231990
Appleton320231989
Ashby320211998
Chandler220231969
Redwood Fall219831983
Osseo219971979
Knapp220241977
Chokio220241983
Caledonia 2220242014
Debs220171998
Beltrami220241985
Lude219851985
New London220121994
Glenwood220191994
Big Stone220121995
Money Creek120241967
Hartland119811981
Huntley120231970
Ash Creek119761976
Millville120172017
Lakeville120111968
Minnetonka120241972
Courtland120081978

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.