BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Minnesota has surged: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+125%Since 1969
51Routes In State
57Years

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in Minnesota

long arc increasecomputed index

Willow Flycatcher has surged in Minnesota: up 125% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.15–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029
0.35Projected 2029 index
0.15–0.5595% range
±16.4%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.340.130.54
20260.340.140.54
20270.340.140.54
20280.350.150.55
20290.350.150.55

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Minnesota.
Glyndon420241978
Tracy420242006
Sherburne Nr320231990
Appleton320231989
Ashby320211998
Chandler220231969
Redwood Fall219831983
Osseo219971979
Knapp220241977
Chokio220241983
Caledonia 2220242014
Debs220171998
Beltrami220241985
Lude219851985
New London220121994
Glenwood220191994
Big Stone220121995
Money Creek120241967
Hartland119811981
Huntley120231970
Ash Creek119761976
Millville120172017
Lakeville120111968
Minnetonka120241972
Courtland120081978

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.