BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in Minnesota has surged: up 206% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+206%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has surged in Minnesota: up 206% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.16–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.150.57
20270.360.150.57
20280.370.160.58
20290.370.160.58
20300.380.160.59

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glyndon720251978
Minnetonka420251972
Knapp320251977
Appleton320251989
Tracy320252006
Ashby320211998
Chandler220251969
Sherburne Nr220251990
Redwood Fall219831983
Osseo219971979
Chokio220251983
Debs220171998
Lude219851985
Fairmont220252019
New London220121994
Glenwood220191994
Chokio North220252004
Big Stone220121995
Money Creek120241967
Hartland119811981
Huntley120231970
Ash Creek119761976
Millville120172017
Lakeville120251968
Courtland120081978

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.