BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in New York has surged: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+113%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has surged in New York: up 113% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 0.66–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 0.66–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.673.3
20262.00.673.3
20272.00.673.3
20282.00.663.3
20292.00.663.3

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Castile1420241967
Watertown1220121986
Nashville1120181967
E Youngstown920231966
Rifton719861978
Cayuga620241969
Salem620241967
N Victory619721967
Dryden520241967
Orleans520241975
St Johnsburg520181969
S Berne 2520182016
Rhinebeck420221968
Swain420071976
Branchport420241995
Canadice L420141973
Centerville420131975
Sheridan420241973
Penfield420241968
N Victory 2420191978
Cicero Ctr420241966
N Wilmurt419981974
Gabriels419981998
Dannemora419951995
Philadelphia420241987

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.