BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Willow Flycatcher in New York has surged: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+158%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Willow Flycatcher has surged in New York: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 0.67–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 0.67–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.693.3
20272.00.683.3
20282.00.683.3
20292.00.683.3
20302.00.673.3

Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Willow Flycatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Watertown1220121986
Nashville1120181967
Sheridan920251973
Byron820251968
Rifton719861978
Cayuga720251969
Castile720251967
Churchville720251968
Dryden620251967
Salem620241967
Philadelphia620251987
N Victory619721967
Macdougall520251969
Orleans520251975
S Berne 2520182016
Oriskany Fls420251973
Swain420071976
Branchport420241995
Canadice L420141973
Centerville420131975
Penfield420251968
N Victory 2420191978
N Wilmurt419981974
Gabriels419981998
Dannemora419951995

Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.