Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Michigan
Willow Flycatcher in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-61%Since 1968
70Routes In State
58Years
Notable Willow Flycatcher Trends in Michigan
long arc declinecomputed index
Willow Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Willow Flycatcher Population Forecast in Michigan
If the recent trend holds, Willow Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.92 (95% range 0.16–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+35%Change by 2029
0.92Projected 2029 index
0.16–1.795% range
±34.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.00 | 0.24 | 1.8 |
| 2026 | 0.98 | 0.22 | 1.7 |
| 2027 | 0.96 | 0.20 | 1.7 |
| 2028 | 0.94 | 0.18 | 1.7 |
| 2029 | 0.92 | 0.16 | 1.7 |
Willow Flycatcher Survey Routes in Michigan
| Hamburg 2 | 6 | 2023 | 2006 |
| Drayton Plns | 6 | 1987 | 1975 |
| Tyre | 6 | 1996 | 1967 |
| Hamburg | 6 | 2001 | 1981 |
| Lawrence | 5 | 2024 | 1969 |
| Howardsville | 5 | 2024 | 1969 |
| Barry S.G.A. 2 | 4 | 2018 | 2014 |
| Skegemog Pt | 4 | 1987 | 1977 |
| Galesburg | 4 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Pettysville | 4 | 1979 | 1969 |
| Marenisco | 3 | 2012 | 2006 |
| New Buffalo | 3 | 2014 | 1992 |
| Seney Nwr | 3 | 1994 | 1993 |
| New Troy | 3 | 2023 | 1971 |
| Coopersville | 3 | 2024 | 1985 |
| Lapeer | 3 | 2023 | 2001 |
| Frederic | 3 | 2001 | 1997 |
| Holt | 3 | 2024 | 1969 |
| Prattville | 3 | 2021 | 1967 |
| Cathro | 3 | 1989 | 1987 |
| Juniata | 3 | 2023 | 1966 |
| North Branch | 3 | 1999 | 1982 |
| S Lyons | 3 | 1989 | 1966 |
| Deckerville | 3 | 2024 | 1978 |
| Big Blue Lk | 2 | 1987 | 1987 |
Willow Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.