BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Oregon has surged: up 550% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+550%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Phoebe Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Phoebe has surged in Oregon: up 550% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Black Phoebe Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Oregon is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.08–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Oregon is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.08–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.070.30
20260.190.070.30
20270.190.080.30
20280.190.080.31
20290.200.080.31

Black Phoebe Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coquille820241996
Wedderburn720241974
Emigrant Lake 2220242022
Barnes Val219721972
Green220242019
Selma220242004
Umpqua220242007
Elkton220242005
Glasgow220242005
Hazel Camp220221983
Ruch119971996
Scappoose120222022
Canby120162016
Nicolai Mtn.120242021
Winberry120232023
Lorane120232023
Secret Val120091999
Sams Valley120242004

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradonevadanew-mexicotexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.