BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Oregon

All statesAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Oregon has surged: up 660% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+660%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Phoebe Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Black Phoebe Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Oregon is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.09–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Oregon is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.09–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.080.30
20270.200.080.31
20280.200.090.31
20290.200.090.32
20300.210.090.32

Black Phoebe Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coquille520251996
Green320252019
Selma320252004
Umpqua320252007
Elkton320252005
Glasgow320252005
Barnes Val219721972
Wedderburn220251974
Hazel Camp220221983
Emigrant Lake 2120252022
Ruch119971996
Scappoose120222022
Canby120162016
Nicolai Mtn.120242021
Winberry120232023
Lorane120252023
Secret Val120091999
Sams Valley120242004

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.