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Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Nevada

All statesAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Nevada has surged: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+131%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Phoebe Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Phoebe has surged in Nevada: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Black Phoebe Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Nevada is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Nevada is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.27
20260.130.000.27
20270.130.000.28
20280.130.000.28
20290.130.000.28

Black Phoebe Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow Vally720241997
Willis220152015
Nelson120002000
Carson River120022001
Ash Meadows120182005
Oreana120032003
Hiko120121968

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradonew-mexicooregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.