Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Phoebe Population Trend in Nevada
Black Phoebe in Nevada has surged: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1972.
+131%Since 1972
7Routes In State
19Years
Notable Black Phoebe Trends in Nevada
long arc increasecomputed index
Black Phoebe has surged in Nevada: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1972.
Black Phoebe Population Forecast in Nevada
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Nevada is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 0.25 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-47%Change by 2029
0.13Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2895% range
±74.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| 2026 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| 2027 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| 2028 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| 2029 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
Black Phoebe Survey Routes in Nevada
| Meadow Vally | 7 | 2024 | 1997 |
| Willis | 2 | 2015 | 2015 |
| Nelson | 1 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Carson River | 1 | 2002 | 2001 |
| Ash Meadows | 1 | 2018 | 2005 |
| Oreana | 1 | 2003 | 2003 |
| Hiko | 1 | 2012 | 1968 |
Black Phoebe Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.