BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Arizona has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-12%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Phoebe Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Black Phoebe Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Arizona is projected to rise about 176% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+176%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Arizona is projected to rise about 176% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.49
20260.240.000.49
20270.240.000.49
20280.240.000.49
20290.240.000.49

Black Phoebe Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Toroweap519971997
Dateland320161994
Hunt219761972
Blue219851974
Pomerene220231970
San Simon220011982
Sunizona219971996
Palo Verde 2220232014
Alamo Res.220151993
Tonto Vill.220101992
Palo Verde220131993
Araby220231992
Redington219971997
Willow Beach 2220182016
Sprucedale220212010
Portal120241980
Prescott119861979
Florence119761972
Laguna120161971
Ajo119951995
Peña Blanca120091979
Patagonia120131972
Cutter 2120172015
Red Rock 2120162016
Riviera120162016

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.