BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Arizona

All statesAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Arizona has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-12%Since 1972
37Routes In State
53Years

Notable Black Phoebe Trends in Arizona

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Black Phoebe Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Arizona is projected to rise about 176% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+176%Change by 2029
0.24Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.4995% range
±59.1%Backtest error
19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.240.000.49
20260.240.000.49
20270.240.000.49
20280.240.000.49
20290.240.000.49

Black Phoebe Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Arizona.
Toroweap519971997
Dateland320161994
Hunt219761972
Blue219851974
Pomerene220231970
San Simon220011982
Sunizona219971996
Palo Verde 2220232014
Alamo Res.220151993
Tonto Vill.220101992
Palo Verde220131993
Araby220231992
Redington219971997
Willow Beach 2220182016
Sprucedale220212010
Portal120241980
Prescott119861979
Florence119761972
Laguna120161971
Ajo119951995
Peña Blanca120091979
Patagonia120131972
Cutter 2120172015
Red Rock 2120162016
Riviera120162016

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.