BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe

TyrannidaeAerial insectivoresSayornis nigricans

Black Phoebe has surged: up 339% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+339%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
311RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Black Phoebe

The Black Phoebe (Sayornis nigricans) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 311 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 9 states, most concentrated in the Coastal California.
Family
Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Black Phoebe TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe. See the full index history below.

Black Phoebe Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.08–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.08–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.080.18
20260.130.080.18
20270.130.080.18
20280.130.080.18
20290.130.080.18

Where the Black Phoebe Is Detected

BBS routes recording Black Phoebe, sized by most recent count.

Black Phoebe Population Trend by State

Black Phoebe population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-12%197237
California+283%1970190
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a5
Nevada+131%19727
New Mexico-45%197823
Oregon+550%197518
Texas+23%197718
Utah-90%199511
Washingtoninsufficient datan/a2

Black Phoebe Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Black Phoebe population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest+60%197045
Great Basin-11%197219
Sierra Nevada+64%197424
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-88%197623
Shortgrass Prairie-29%20006
Coastal California+346%1970113
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+827%197132
Sierra Madre Occidental-34%197221
Chihuahuan Desert-27%197722

Black Phoebe Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 339% since 1970. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.