Black Phoebe
Black Phoebe has surged: up 339% on the route-weighted index since 1970.
About the Black Phoebe
The Black Phoebe (Sayornis nigricans) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.
- Size
- 4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
- Diet
- Flying insects caught on the wing.
- Range
- Recorded on 311 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 9 states, most concentrated in the Coastal California.
- Family
- Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores
Notable Black Phoebe Trends
No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe. See the full index history below.
Black Phoebe Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.08–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| 2026 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| 2027 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| 2028 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| 2029 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
Where the Black Phoebe Is Detected
BBS routes recording Black Phoebe, sized by most recent count.
Black Phoebe Population Trend by State
| Arizona | -12% | 1972 | 37 |
| California | +283% | 1970 | 190 |
| Colorado | insufficient data | n/a | 5 |
| Nevada | +131% | 1972 | 7 |
| New Mexico | -45% | 1978 | 23 |
| Oregon | +550% | 1975 | 18 |
| Texas | +23% | 1977 | 18 |
| Utah | -90% | 1995 | 11 |
| Washington | insufficient data | n/a | 2 |
Black Phoebe Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| Northern Pacific Rainforest | +60% | 1970 | 45 |
| Great Basin | -11% | 1972 | 19 |
| Sierra Nevada | +64% | 1974 | 24 |
| Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau | -88% | 1976 | 23 |
| Shortgrass Prairie | -29% | 2000 | 6 |
| Coastal California | +346% | 1970 | 113 |
| Sonoran and Mojave Deserts | +827% | 1971 | 32 |
| Sierra Madre Occidental | -34% | 1972 | 21 |
| Chihuahuan Desert | -27% | 1977 | 22 |
Black Phoebe Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it up about 339% since 1970. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.