BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Coastal California has surged: up 346% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+346%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Phoebe has surged in Coastal California: up 346% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Coastal California is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.8–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Coastal California is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.8–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.63.65.5
20264.63.75.6
20274.73.75.7
20284.83.85.7
20294.83.85.8

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harbor Lake 2CALIFORNIA162024
OrlandCALIFORNIA152022
Hollister 2CALIFORNIA152024
AuburnCALIFORNIA131980
MorenoCALIFORNIA122024
El ToroCALIFORNIA121999
WestleyCALIFORNIA122024
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA122011
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA122023
RumseyCALIFORNIA112008
SangerCALIFORNIA102024
TracyCALIFORNIA102009
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA92024
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA92024
Point ReyesCALIFORNIA82023
HughsonCALIFORNIA72024
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA72003
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA72023
SisquocCALIFORNIA72014
Lake BerryessaCALIFORNIA72024
OnealsCALIFORNIA72024
PowayCALIFORNIA61980
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA62024
GlennCALIFORNIA62023
Gold HillCALIFORNIA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.