BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe Population Trend in California

All statesAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in California has surged: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+283%Since 1970
190Routes In State
56Years

Notable Black Phoebe Trends in California

long arc increasecomputed index

Black Phoebe has surged in California: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black Phoebe Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in California is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 2.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029
2.7Projected 2029 index
2.2–3.395% range
±7.3%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.62.03.1
20262.62.13.2
20272.72.13.2
20282.72.13.2
20292.72.23.3

Black Phoebe Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Black Phoebe in California.
Niland2820241977
Harbor Lake 21620242014
Orland1520221978
Hollister 21520242012
Auburn1319801970
Alamo River1320181973
Moreno1220241979
El Toro1219991973
Westley1220241972
Tres Pinos 21220112005
Collegeville 21220232007
Rumsey1120081972
Sanger1020242011
Tracy1020091993
Jofegan 2920242024
Staten Is.920241994
Point Reyes820231970
Hughson720241975
Tres Pinos720031968
Bakersfield720232015
Sisquoc720141970
Lake Berryessa720242023
Oneals720241972
Kernville720082008
Poway619801974

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

arizonacoloradonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.