BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe Population Trend in California

All statesAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in California has surged: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+283%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
190Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Phoebe Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Phoebe has surged in California: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black Phoebe Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in California is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 2.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in California is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 2.2–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.62.03.1
20262.62.13.2
20272.72.13.2
20282.72.13.2
20292.72.23.3

Black Phoebe Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Black Phoebe in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Niland2820241977
Harbor Lake 21620242014
Orland1520221978
Hollister 21520242012
Auburn1319801970
Alamo River1320181973
Moreno1220241979
El Toro1219991973
Westley1220241972
Tres Pinos 21220112005
Collegeville 21220232007
Rumsey1120081972
Sanger1020242011
Tracy1020091993
Jofegan 2920242024
Staten Is.920241994
Point Reyes820231970
Hughson720241975
Tres Pinos720031968
Bakersfield720232015
Sisquoc720141970
Lake Berryessa720242023
Oneals720241972
Kernville720082008
Poway619801974

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.