BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in Texas has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+23%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Phoebe Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe in Texas. See the full index history below.

Black Phoebe Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.02 (95% range 0.01–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.020.000.04
20240.020.010.04
20250.020.010.04
20260.020.010.04
20270.020.010.04

Black Phoebe Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black Phoebe in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Cyn.220092000
Laredo220142014
Black Gap220042004
Quitman Canyon 2220222010
Montell219951995
Presidio120222007
Salt Flat120142003
Marathon120092009
El Indio119741974
Comstock119761976
Shafter119771974
Mertzon119801979
Pedro Creek120042004
Casa Piedra120221986
Valentine119771977
Canutillo120102002
Bear Mtn119921989
Utopia120071980

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.