BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Phoebe Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Black Phoebe in New Mexico has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-20%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black Phoebe Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Phoebe in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Black Phoebe Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±146.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Phoebe in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±146.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.000.18
20270.080.000.18
20280.080.000.18
20290.080.000.18
20300.080.000.18

Black Phoebe Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Black Phoebe in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita520191993
Columbus419991999
Pecos220161991
Valencia219961991
Jornada219811978
Reserve220211993
Red Rock220251994
Mesilla220001992
Ojo Sarco120252015
La Cienega120142014
Cooley Lake119761976
Carrizozo119741974
Cloudcroft120122004
Maxwell120122012
Laborcita 2120252022
Gallinas120192015
Variadero120161999
Rosebud120012001
Emory Pass120211996
Queen120022002
Sabinoso120132008
Logan120172016
Lake Valley119931993

Black Phoebe Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradonevadaoregontexasutahwashington

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.